The country that once led the world in economic miracles is now struggling to keep up with the growing costs of caring for aging residents and maintaining its global standing. With a falling population and stalled economy, the future looks bleak for Japan, whose government has launched a series of new policies to encourage more people to start families.
Experts agree that the problem is multifaceted, ranging from the economic pressure to work longer hours and reject traditional paths of marriage and family life for career success to women’s increasing preference to postpone having children or even having them. In addition, the high cost of living and lack of space for raising children in cities means that many couples need help to afford to have kids, which leads to further disincentives.
A healthy total fertility rate is 2.1 children per woman, but Japan is below that mark and has been below it for over 20 years. If the trend continues, the country could lose its population in the next 50 years and end up with a much smaller society.
This is a new challenge for the government of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, which has made promoting family-friendly policy a top priority and plans to double spending on childcare and other initiatives. But money may not solve the problem, which is also exacerbated by a profound pessimism among young people about their jobs and prospects.
The issue is not limited to Tokyo, with all 47 prefectures except for one reporting a decline in residents last year. The drop is a staggering 30 percent in some areas in just 25 years. Moreover, the decline has outpaced official projections and is accelerating alarmingly.
It starkly contrasts China, which has seen its population grow for the first time in more than six decades as its people are healthier and have more job opportunities. But the Japanese case is unique in that a stalled economy accompanies its declining population.
A decline in the number of working-age citizens means fewer taxpayers, which makes it harder for the country to keep its public debt under control and maintain its status as the third-largest economy. But despite the challenge, experts say Japan is well positioned to be a leader in developing solutions for other countries facing demographic shifts. The key is to set the right priorities and take bold steps now. A successful effort will not only help Japan survive the change but can lead the way in ensuring a more stable and prosperous future for all nations. The AP’s Hiroki Sakai and Shimon Sato contributed to this report.
