Major forecasters are saying that the 2025 holiday shopping season could be very good for retailers, even though the economy is uncertain and consumers are being careful. Several analysts in the industry think that sales will reach record levels, thanks to strong growth in e-commerce and steady spending in stores. This means that retailers have reason to be hopeful about the important year-end period.
Sales Milestones in the Past
Retail is going to have a very special holiday season. All of the industry forecasts point to a good future, with total holiday sales expected to reach more than $1 trillion in nominal terms, which would be a record. Retailers are ready to take advantage of strong consumer fundamentals that keep spending going even when times are tough.
Forrester says that U.S. holiday retail sales will rise 4.4% year over year, reaching $1.05 trillion in 2025. This is a little faster than the last two years. This growth shows that the economy is still strong, as people are still willing to spend money on holiday gifts. The momentum builds on the success of 2024, when holiday sales grew 4% to reach $994.1 billion, which was more than expected.
E-commerce is picking up speed.
There are no signs that the digital shift that has changed modern retail will slow down. This holiday season, e-commerce is expected to be a major driver of growth. Forrester says that online sales will hit $270 billion, which is a 6.7% increase from the previous year. Adobe says that this season, mobile sales will reach an all-time high of 56.1% of all online sales. Seven out of ten visits to retail sites will be on mobile devices.
This digital dominance shows how people shop for the holidays these days. It’s now easy to switch between online and offline channels, and retailers that do a great job of providing omnichannel experiences are in a good position to get more sales. Digital tools are getting more advanced all the time, from personalized recommendations to virtual try-ons. This makes shopping online easier and more likely to lead to sales.
Traffic in Stores Returns
Even though digital spending is driving most of the growth, physical stores are still very important during the holidays. Forrester thinks that sales in stores will go up 3.6% from last year, reaching $780 billion. This growth, while not as big as online shopping, shows that people are starting to shop in person again, as they want to experience the holiday shopping experience.
Discount stores, supercenters, and warehouse clubs are likely to see a lot of foot traffic because shoppers who want to save money are looking for deals both online and in person. People are still going to stores during the holiday season to get the full sensory experience that makes holiday shopping so special.
Value Is King
People are focusing on value this holiday season, which is a clear trend. Instead of just lowering prices, successful stores are finding that customers want more value for their money. This means good quality, convenience, and an emotional connection, all at a price that is competitive. Retailers need to pay attention to this small detail when making their holiday plans.
Consumer surveys show that shoppers plan to spend an average of about $1,595, and 77% of them think that holiday items will cost more. Retailers are responding to this mix of high prices and cost-consciousness by offering tiered options, private-label alternatives to premium products, and loyalty programs that give real value beyond just discounts.
There are still problems, but there are also chances.
There are some problems on the way forward. People are feeling more cautious, and 57% of the shoppers who were surveyed said they expect the economy to be weaker next year. Retailers are still having trouble making plans because they don’t know what tariffs will be and they might have to deal with higher costs for shipping and labor. Also, 58% of shoppers still find holiday shopping stressful, which gives stores a chance to make it easier and offer personalized help.
But these problems aren’t stopping people from spending. People still have a lot of savings—over $1 trillion in Q2 2025—and disposable income is growing faster than inflation. Wealthier families still spend a lot of money, while stores that focus on discounts are taking advantage of middle- and lower-income shoppers looking for better deals.
The Chance for AI
This holiday season, artificial intelligence is becoming a key factor that sets things apart. Adobe says that AI-driven traffic to retail sites will rise by 515–520% compared to 2024, with Thanksgiving Day seeing a huge 725–730% increase. As more and more people use AI tools to find deals, read reviews, and make shopping lists, retailers that use these technologies are ready to make more sales.
More than double the number of people who planned to use generative AI in their shopping journey last year, now 33% of shoppers plan to do so. In a market that is getting more and more competitive, retailers that add AI recommendations, personalization engines, and smart search features to their platforms will stand out.
Going Forward
The holiday season of 2025 is a great chance for stores to make money. Strong nominal sales growth, steady consumer spending even though people are being careful, faster adoption of e-commerce, and more people going to stores again all point to a strong season. Retailers that focus on giving customers real value, using technology to make experiences more personal, and being great at omnichannel execution are in a good position to take advantage of the chance.
There may still be uncertainty in the economy and consumers may still be cautious, but the basics point to strong holiday sales. The 2025 holiday season could be a big success for retailers who are ready to deal with this complicated landscape, which has both opportunities and challenges. It could bring in record sales and show that American consumers are still strong.
